This bull market is still young relative to history and, for now, supported by a healthy economy and broadening participation among stock sectors outside of tech. The current bull market is two years old. The fears that higher interest rates would sink the economy and stock...
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Inflation cooled further in June leading markets to believe Fed rates will soon follow. For the first time in a long time the Consumer Price Index fell on a monthly basis in June, declining 0.1% from May. This was welcome news for the financial markets which...
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Fed chairman Powell suggests interest rates could stay high for a longer period. The stock market, which was expecting numerous cuts this year, has not responded favorably. Up until very recently, the expectation for 2024 has been for moderating inflation and several Fed rate cuts. In...
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Looking back several decades to the last 14 tightening cycles by the Federal Reserve’s, the Fed has managed a soft landing (i.e. successfully slowing growth and inflation without causing a recession) only twice. The other twelve tightening cycles have resulted in a recession. In other...
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Rising interest rates, falling stock prices, government dysfunction, and a war between Hamas and Israel are all adding to investors’ angst. But nothing hurts investor confidence more than losing money. 2022 was a bad year for stocks and bonds recording returns of -18% (S&P 500 stock...
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Inflation Continues to Cool June CPI registered a 3% increase, which was the smallest 12-month increase since the period ending March 2021. While a downward trend in inflation can always reverse, it is also possible that the easing inflation and a somewhat slower economy may result...
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Economic Outlook Remains Murky The Fed tightened until something broke: Silicon Valley Bank. Now the Fed has to grapple with maintaining financial stability (and not let anything else break) as it tries to tame inflation. The outlook for the U.S. economy has become murky—again. First, Federal Reserve...
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Is Schwab Okay? The recent banking crisis has hammered financial stocks, but few more than Schwab, which is down 35% in three weeks. In the wake of the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) failure, Charles Schwab stock has suffered the fastest decline since 1987. While few clients of...
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Despite high inflation and rising interest rates, the U.S. labor market remains strong. If inflation continues to ease, an economic soft landing may actually be possible. The U.S. economy produced jobs at a slower but still comfortable rate at the end of 2022, as higher interest...
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